Wed 5_30

Two setups in the SPY.  The first I traded, the second I missed.
The first setup was in anticipation of 3a criteria (price moving higher to test resistance (inverse H&S on 5min)

The second setup was anticipation of the continued bearish sentiment after resistance was rejected.  Two potential entries but the seed wave Fib. projections are based off of the second entry

Dollar Index pitchfork

Weekly chart with Andrews pitchfork and sliding parallels.  The Dollar index looks as though it is on a trajectory to test that first sliding parallel line:

SPY 2d

-Bullish trend in place (20- & 50-MA slope & distance) and price above MA's.
-Pull back into a support area (in this case the previous day's high) which often registers as a reverse divergence.
-Double bottom into the later afternoon (can otherwise be an inverse H&S or 3-push to a low).
-Price returns back to the breakdown point (continues in the direction of the trend).
I use the term "2d setup" to define the above list of criteria, as mentioned in previous posts.  So here is what it looked like in the SPY today; as an aside, had price rolled over under $133 (around the 1:30-2:00 hour) this could have been a potential short:

And so price is in the reversion to a mean phase, in this case the 20-day MA, which coincides with the 38.2% retracement.  (Pay no attention to the lower wick on the chart below, it appears I have to clear my cache).

overnight range

  If you follow any market with active overnight/pre-market trading this is probably elementary to you, but I thought I would highlight the significance for those that may not be aware.  Knowing where the market traded before Regular Trading Hours (RTH) begin is incredibly useful in framing the context of where price is, or where it may want to go (after all, it is an auction process that tests back and forth to gauge interest in higher/lower prices).
  So, before the market opens at 9:30a.m. EST (8:30 CST my time) I frame the highs and lows of the pre-market in the SPY.  These levels are indicated by purple horizontal lines in the charts that follow (where p/m_H refers to pre-market Highs and p/m_L refers to pre-market Lows).  The vertical blue dash line indicates the open of RTH.  In the chart below we can see how closely this compares with the futures globex market on the right (the E-mini S&P in this example):

Along with the p/m_H & p/m_L I like to extend Fibonacci projections off these levels in 50% increments.  So, starting with trade from Monday May 21 here we have the SPY with pre-market included.
Monday was a trend day up, but notice how price behaved at both the p/m_L & p/m_H before breaking out:

Tuesday May 22nd; a test higher (just beyond a 50% projection of the overnight range) and a test lower (nearly to the penny of a 50% projection) before settling back around the previous day's close

Wednesday May 23rd; A narrower overnight range where on the open the p/_H was rejected and price moved swiftly lower to a 100% projection of the overnight range.  Eventually however, price rallied higher, extending to the 100% projection on the upside (notice how it gets caught up on the p/m_L, needing to pull back before it can take off).

Thursday May 24:  A very wide o/n range and being a range-bound market in this instance, price tests both extremes:

Friday May 25; A quiet pre-holiday environment where price based along the p/m_L for most of the afternoon before breaking lower and reversing on the 50% projection.

Anyway, to get an idea of where you're going it helps to know where you've been.

SPY retrace

The SPY held a 50% retrace of the most recent momentum.  While spending most of the day pulling back and consolidating, price extended higher into the close.
  The 5-min chart includes the after-market (indicated by blue dash vertical line) to show the follow-through.

Wed. 5_23

Just a quick chart update on Crude and Copper being that I haven't posted a chart of either in a while.
Both below their 200-day Moving Average's and both sitting within Fib. retracement zones.

Crude has been in this persistent selling channel for 13-days already (as though waiting for a catalyst to break out in either direction).

Copper - has a 50% Fib. projection which aligns with its 61.8% retracement level right around the $3.38-$3.4 area.  The moving averages sure seem to be setting up in a bearish orientation.

Bounce

The broad markets got a bounce, and just shy of the 38% Fib. retracement and 100% Fib. projection.