The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.

Friday, January 22, 2016

CTL update

Nice throwback after the CTL break

Friday, September 25, 2015

CTL break

Been a while since looking at the SPY Stevenson cycles.  Interesting development in that the Cyclic Trend  Line Has been broken (and back-tested).  In Stevenson work this signals an end to the prevailing cycle (in this case a long-standing Inverted Cycle) and the beginning of its complimentary (Regular) Cycle.

a closer look at the throw-back to the CTL

Thursday, July 9, 2015


Probably a good time to start looking at the Transportation Index for a bounce.

The higher time frame trend is very bullish (first test of the monthly 20-MA since 2012) and the weekly time frame is coming in to support

Tuesday, July 7, 2015


Another higher time frame short trigger at the close of last week on GC

Saturday, June 27, 2015

DJIA Quarterly

LONG-term chart.  Dow Jones Industrial Average Quarterly time frame showing a 3/10macd fast line potentially crossing the slow line (bar ends at the end of the month).  Not something that happens very often in such a slow time frame.  The overall trend would remain bullish for quite some time but it is interesting that the 20-period MA lines up nicely with support.

not much has changed

In terms of the current (weekly) inverted cycle.  398-weeks off the lows into the most recent all-time high.

Thursday, June 18, 2015


look, I realize that I'm flip-flopping on my intrpretation of the higher time frame Gold futures.  You can get chopped to pieces in narrow range consolidation, but eventually price will break out in one or another direction, and that's where you need to act.  So, until price breaks out we have to look for clues.
Price may be hooking up, which would turn the higher time frame (monthly) 3d critieria back to bullish.  Price has coiled for nearly one year, expect a big move and follow the direction of that move.

Friday, May 15, 2015

GC 3d

Gold has been choppy (coiling) but the higher time frame 3d criteria could still be in play coming out of May.

Saturday, April 18, 2015

rollover watch

$GC higher time frame on roll over watch.
After the potential for a 3d long criteria waned (losing steam at the weekly 50MA and monthly 20MA) we have the potential for a breakdown

Similar to the way $HG behaved to start 2014.  Monthly time frame set up the potential for a 3d criteria long position but continued to see rejection from the 20MA, rolling-over through support

Sunday, February 8, 2015

GC monthly

Cautious of a roll-over on the higher time frame after tagging initial target.
Price needs to stabilize at 1197-1217 support for further upside.

Thursday, January 15, 2015


GC progressing in the 3d criteria long setup on the (much) higher time frame.
You can make the argument that you would have stopped yourself out when the weekly fast line ticked down, resulting in a $9.80/contract loss.  However, the next week you got another trigger to enter which saw the $48.80 primary target hit today.

An important lesson in HG regarding this 3d criteria setup and to be cautious of a potential roll-over.  We recently saw in Copper how price got caught up in the 20-period MA and rolled over.

Saturday, December 20, 2014

previous post

trigger; positive fast line on weekly time frame in order to anticipate the higher (monthly) time frame setting up a 3d criteria long setup.  $54.30 stop seems wide but it is a larger time frame.  I'm not a fan of the setup being that it's a red candle in a predominantly bear trend, but you have to wait it out and gauge momentum.

Gold has been oscillating around it's midpoint for 18 months now.