The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at toddstrade@gmail.com
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.


Wednesday, April 16, 2014

update

Coming off of the previous post, most issues achieved primary target, except for IWM lagging.  DIA and IYT strong






Tue 04_15

Finally a worthwhile long setup in the majors.
Fairly wide targets (based on the average), so it becomes discretionary as to whether you let it play out, scratch at b/e, or take no less than half of the target.  Most are falling slightly shy of their initial targets within the first hour.





Saturday, April 12, 2014

weeklies

DIA - $DJIA closed just above 16k on the week.  Difficult to tell what it may do from here.  Either way, the daily isn't quite set up to buy at this point.
IWM - may be setting up a reverse (buy) divergence on the weekly.  Would be waiting for the daily FL>SL to take place
QQQ - Rounding top pattern with approximately a $7 measured move.  Weekly downside momentum being the strongest since November 2012.  Would like to see a daily 3d setup before buying.

IBB - registering the strongest negative momentum ever.  While the trend is still intact, these momentum pushes can be difficult to completely recover from.  Though the daily is showing signs of waning momentum.  The fast line turning positive may be worth trying to buy.

weekly time frame

Higher highs, higher lows, strongly trending 20- & 50-MA's.  This time frame will still find buyers into $178 and $174

Waiting for the weekly time frame to reset to a buying opportunity will mean waiting for the daily time frame to have a fast line/slow line orientation to bullish.  Gauging the next buying cycle will be important to see whether or not the weekly puts in it's first structural lower high since July 2011.

Thursday, April 10, 2014

04_10

All that selling and nothing really actionable (on the short side) in terms of triggers for the Daily/Hourly split.




Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Wed 04_09

Another melt up on the hourly time frame.  Chasing price higher with very little pullback (as exemplified in the hourly 3/10macd).
SPY - Daily exhibiting fairly symmetrical cycles averaging 10-days.  The only continuation following a pullback trigger came pretty late
 DIA - zero pullback
 QQQ- trigger on opening hour bar, primary objective achieved
 IWM - similar as QQQ
 ES - 4H

Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Tue 04_08

SPY - the Daily 3/10macd could be putting in a 3d criteria setup.  Many other indexes still have a positive Slow Line.

DIA - So long as the Dow remains over 16,000 it looks like it is building a base around the 2013 closing price and 2014 Open price area

QQQ -

IWM
 IYT - A lot of overhead supply, but the slow line still remains positive on the daily (making the hourly open to buying setups).
 XLF - holding support
 EURUSD
 4H ES -

Mon 04_07

Things looking pretty extended here




Friday, April 4, 2014

04-04

Big day made up for all of the choppy cuts leading up to today.  Most achieved primary target, except for $XLF ($QQQ reached secondary target).





Cycle Update

Had to re-draw the SPY cycle count being that we made another high.  It's been a crazy run.  Technically the cycle isn't considered over until price closes beyond the "Cyclic Trend Line" (CTL, in fuchsia).  In other words, we have a long way to go

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Tue 04_01

Tough setup when the trigger chart doesn't have a very solid pullback.
The daily triggered a long on a few majors, so looking for a strong momentum breakout. Which may or may not happen before Friday's NFP
SPY breaking out of the "W" pattern
 DIA - a little hesitation, caution for a pullback if there isn't a momentum move tomorrow.
 IWM - has some ground to cover.  Should it trigger a positive 3/10macd daily reading tomorrow it may be a choppy move forward due to the V-bottom characteristic
 QQQ - similar story as IWM
 IYT - all-time closing high today.  Very strong move these past three days