The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Diamond Top?

Looking at a daily chart of QID (ProShares UltraShort QQQ ETF) we can see a very peculiar shape taking place. Being that charts are very much a representation of trader's emotion, it isn't surprising to see such a jumble of price behavior that we have seen on this chart of late. It's actually a cool looking chart; looks kinda like a flying kite.
As far as I can tell, this chart pattern is known as a Diamond. One of my favorite sites of reference is Bulkowski's where you can find a wealth of information regarding chart patterns and how to measure/trade them.Diamond Tops can break up or down. The measuring rule calculates the difference between the high and low point of the diamond, in this case a $34 range (not shown, but easy to see), which would be added to or subtracted from the breakout price.
However, since price has made a quick and nearly vertical rise into the pattern, a measuring rule like the one just described may be impractical. For instance, if we were to break out in the $70 range a measured move would put us at $104 (new highs) or $36 to the downside (levels not seen since June of this year). While anything is possible, measured moves aren't precise, so perhaps we should be a little more conservative in our estimates.
A break-down from here could, more likely, be suspected to return price to the point where it was before the vertical rally (around the $50-$55 range).
A breakout to the upside would put us testing the highs, in the $85-$90 range.
Some of the key concepts that Thomas Bulkowski teaches with this pattern include;
"High velocity moves after the pattern often follow high velocity moves leading to the pattern."
"A rising volume trend results in the best post-breakout performance."
We should also keep in mind (even though not shown in the chart) that volume has been declining ever since the early part of this pattern and also, the two extreme highs have been red/bearish candles.
Remember, this is an inverse ETF of the Q's. A break to the upside = crashy crashy. To the downside = bear market rally!

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