A very sloppy day today. A big move came around later in the afternoon, I have no idea what the cause for the move was attributed to, but I missed it anyway. I still have a problem jumping into a position after the first big green candle (impulse move). There's usually a follow-through and yet I don't like the feeling of chasing a move. Just something I need to work on.
AAPL traded very poorly today ahead of earnings, closing at the lows. Maybe the market just suspects the same old dance routine with their earnings release (better than, or as to be expected earnings numbers, with a conservative outlook going forward).
I'm still holding my very small position in BNI, it started to move this afternoon, but suffered the same fate as the rest of the market when the broad selling took hold.
Just for the sake of having a chart up today, here's QLD. It can at least act as a study on how you might go about trading such a choppy and indecisive market. In hindsight I suppose the market was plenty "decisive." There was little conviction in buying (yet again) and plenty of jumping in when the short signals are triggered across everyone's screens. Anyway, let's check out QLD:If you were quick and decisive you could have jumped in long (out of the opening range ascending triangle) and rode the move out until you started seeing those upper-wicky candles, or the doji/hanging man-like candle.
In my opinion, the key candlestick to get short for me would have been that gravestone-like doji where the 20- & 50-EMA's converged and the faster EMA (purple) was sloping down. At this time also the Macd had ticked negative.
Price chopped around S1 before making new lows on the day (corresponding closely with previous day's lows). A bullish tweezers with the bullish momentum divergence was a good probability sign to get long.
Price returned back to S1 for more chop. From noon to about 2:15 the chart looked a lot like an inverted roof, which would have put a measured move to the upside back at around the pivot point (yellow line). Price never made it that far though.
Chop ensued again around Vwap (red dots) for about a half-hour until we got that big momentum candle taking price back to S1 and beyond. The same "forced-selling" excuse seems to be our reasons behind why we're getting these 3:00p.m. snowballing sell-offs.
The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at email@example.com
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