The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
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Monday, February 2, 2009

choppy gap-fill

Perhaps we should be expecting a choppy market as price tries to recover previous support (8k on the Dow, $29.60 on Q's), it's tough to tell what might happen. Anyway, watching a 5-min chart of the Q's today, we got a narrow-range consolidation on the gap down (first red box), price expansion up to our PivotPoint (and Daily 20-EMA resistance). Price consolidated on it's short-term moving averages (second red box) where we had another push to get above the previous day's close. Coinciding with a failed cup w. handle pattern price sold off before finding support around the ORH (open-range high). This third consolidation range (third red box) got another strong price expansion and made a run for previous support ($29.60) before getting rejected. Finally, price closed just under the daily 20-EMA.On our 5-min SPY chart we had a similar pattern in price today, however the cup w. handle pattern actually succeeded in breaking out and nearly completed it's measured move, but couldn't extend beyond the PDC (previous day's close).If our current price pattern in SPY is indeed a bear flag (which broke down on Friday), then a 100% extension on such a pattern would bring it right down to prior lows. Also notice that today's low (on the open) ocurred right at the 50% extension.

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