The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
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Monday, March 30, 2009

back below the 50EMA

A gap-down across the board and trend day down. The SPY (5min) gapped down to S3 and early on we got a Descending Triangle breakdown just after 10:30EST. Most of the afternoon was spent in a pretty narrow channel, but for the most part the trend down was pretty symmetrical. We got two "First Cross" triggers today, the first one (green vertical line for a long) was ignored as the slope of the macd average was negative and practically below zero. The other signal (red vertical line short) worked out, but required either quick profit taking skills (a short trailing stop leash) or patience to get the most out of the move (personally I'm in the former camp).
On our 15-min chart we see a total breakdown of our previous trending regression channel (so I started a new channel today), while the 20- & 50-EMAs crossed bearish on Friday. I added a component to my 15-min charts this weekend where the blue candles represent WR7 (widest range of the last 7 bars). The concept behind that is to sell a close lower than (or reverse for longs) the WR7 within the first few candles (preferably within two candles). As you can see, this morning's first 15-min candle was in fact a WR7 and selling the weakness was just like selling a bear-flag set-up.
As an aside, the purple candles on this chart indicate an NR7 - narrowest range of the last 7 candles.
As for a longer perspective, here's the 60-min chart. What I'm going to be on the lookout for is a potential "Slingshot" setup; where we have just put in a higher low, while our momentum indicator put in a lower low; this has the potential to send price higher (even if by higher I mean only a retrace back to our 50-EMA before continuing lower).As far as the Daily is concerned; we closed back below the 50-EMA and look to test the trendline sometime soon, to see if it will hold support.

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