If you were getting short today, you might have gotten the feeling like you were playing chicken with a speeding freight train. I'm not sure if this week is mostly a result of quadruple witching on Friday, or if the bulls really do have this much conviction.
First thing to notice from this morning was the relatively positive TICK readings on a negative start to the day. Here's a 5-min chart of the SPY. I snapped a regression channel off of the first two swing lows (around 9:45 and 11:30 a.m. EST) while using 2 standard deviations. The result of which was very satisfying for the rest of the day. There was an opportunity to sell short at the top of the regression channel that coincided with R1. While there was a buying opportunity at the bottom of the regression channel coinciding with pivot support.
In keeping with my post from yesterday regarding the "first cross method," today's tape in SPY provided two setups; one short, one long. The long opportunity you might have scaled out of and held some until end of day. If you took the short setup, you would have bailed on it.
Here's a look at the 15-min chart, where price recovered it's regression channel from the beginning of this rally. There's also a look at a "first cross" set-up that occurred today.Here's a longer perspective of the same chart.Finally, here's a look at the SPY 60-min chart (including the most recent long trigger using the aforementioned "first cross" method). Price pinned right up against resistance.
The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at firstname.lastname@example.org
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.