Can we really count today's activity within the context of how things may play out come next week? Volume was minuscule and we're sitting on a level of support that can make for a good entry to go long OR short, so it should get interesting next week.
As price hoovered around the 50-EMA most of the day (on the 15-min chart), it looked to me to be taking the shape of an inverted roof. The measured move played out nicely. Take note of the 3/10-indicator; how the slope of the slow line is negative, while the fast line comes in and corrects off of it before continuing lower and below the zero-line; something I've become accustomed to pay attention to.
Here's a closer look within the 5-minute chart. If you don't agree with the subjective interpretation of an inverted roof, than perhaps you can see a bear flag set up after the first two wide range bars (that break out of the inverted roof). If that's the case, then you still get a measured move that puts you into a similar target range (in this case, our pivot point). Drawing a regression channel that starts at the beginning of this move and connected to the swing low of May14th, price sits right at the channel's lower boundary.Here's the current range on a 30-minute chart. A number of consolidation ranges; today's was the $89.50-$90 level. We're now at the lower channel, do we break down from here or go back to the highs. If we break down and don't get a new momentum low then we'll be looking out for a momentum divergence to play off of. If we go higher we could suspect a gap-fill from the 05/20-05/21 close-to-open. At any rate, volume was absent and we're right where we started the previous day. The momentum oscillator looks like it wants to bleed lower, but we'll have to wait for evidence.On the weekly chart, we're within a tight range; a break in either direction could lead to a great deal of momentum.
The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at firstname.lastname@example.org
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