A gap down on the open, right into S1 where price quickly recovered in the first 15-minutes. TICK was mildly weak.From the previous close to this morning's open we had a subtle momentum divergence, warning of a possible gap-fill (at least). As pivot gave a touch of resistance a huge volume surge came in at the 10:00a.m. hour. I was listening to an audio presentation recently given by Linda Rashcke, where she discusses volatility/impulse breakouts. A concept she brings up is one of the opening gap and describes that essentially in these scenario's one side of the market is trapped.
Typically, on a gap-down those that are long are "trapped" in their positions, forcing them to sell, in turn dragging prices further down ("A gap is a form of Impulse"). However, this morning we saw those who were short were trapped when price recovered, thereby forcing shorts to cover while also bringing long positions into the market, leading to a squeeze.
(She also mentions a strategy wherein you buy the issue (on a gap down) if price returns back to the previous day's close, food for thought).
Anyway, Nice how price came right down to that previous level of support where we had that gap-up on May 4th (30-min. chart below). We also got that momentum divergence I mentioned last week where this morning's momentum low was minuscule compared to the previous swing low momentum reading. Therefore, we were looking for a gap-fill from the gap-down on May 21st, who could have guessed we would have gotten that gap-fill in one fell swoop!?
Also notice the highest momentum high since that May 4th gap-up (momentum precedes price...unless it's capitulation ;)
Some sort of retracement was suspect (for me) given the shooting star candles here on the 15-min chart (1-1.5-hours into the day). But when I think about it, given the volume that came into this move, a retracement was less of a probability.
Q's recovered the 200MA and registered green on our momentum oscillator. Not to mention today's session engulfed the previous 6 candle bodies.Dow Transports set up a momentum divergence on lows that have now been tested 5 times.Gold showed strength after a weak open, while the Dollar started off strong and then fell apart.Treasuries fell apart in concert with the above (Gold & Dollar) activity.
The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at firstname.lastname@example.org
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