The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

First Cross study revisited

As pre-FOMC chop unwinds I am updating my results from a previous post involving the First Cross method. If you prefer not to go back and read the previous post, the rules are:
A First Cross signal on a 10-min chart of the SPY that coincides with a close outside of a 2-bar price channel with a stop above/below the previous bar's high/low.
Here's an example where the green vertical line represents a signal that played out and the red vertical line represents a signal where you would have been stopped out based on the simple rules.Keep in mind, these are strictly mechanical signals. There are many ways in which you could use your own style and discretion while incorporating this system (whether it be to gain a short-term bias to the market and trade other issues, using shorter time frames to either scalp, or even widening your stops for swing trades).
So, going back to the beginning of the year you would have had 108 signals. 25 would have resulted in being stopped out (based on the rules established), while 15 could have been viewed as scratch trades (and for the sake of curve-fitting, I'll include the "scratch trades" as signals that didn't work out, so that's 108 positive signals, and 40 negative). So, out of 108 trades 62.9% year to date have resulted in "winning" signals.
Keep in mind, these signals are entry only, and rely on your discretion to raise stops to lock in winners or close out a position when you might sense that the market is turning. Nonetheless, it has the potential to give you a general short term bias to the market.

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