Today's selling got me excited for an intermediate "top", but we need more proof of a turn in sentiment.
We have seen an increase in volume this week and we're sitting right at a gap fill that couldn't get more technically significant. A closer view of the SPY daily; Wouldn't you just love to see a spike and fail into $110?
I've mentioned before that I check the first half hour of Total NYSE shares (symbol is $TVOL on Tradestation) to get keyed in to whether larger time frame players may be participating. Here's what today looked like; almost as big as yesterday. Notice the largest spike in $TVOL occurred on Sept. 2, the bottom of the most recent swing low!
Upward momentum continues to wane. Here's the 60-min SPY (notice the "Slingshot" setup on 9/2, where momentum made a lower low while price made a higher low). Here's how the 30-min is setting up. It looks like a Head & Shoulders pattern, but we've seen this too many times before, we just have to wait to see if we test the 50-EMA and how it reacts on such a test.
Here's the intra-day SPY. Things to point out: My resistance pivot held twice, (2) a little inverted H& S pattern, and (3) a H&S pattern on the macd late in the day. Not highlighted on the chart we also saw a 3-push move to the downside. The first "impulse" move occurred with the break through of the lower keltner channel. We retraced and then a second and third impulse move formed our buy divergence in the 3/10 macd.
Let's check out the NYSE TICK in combination with the SPY on a 1-min. timeframe.
Things to look for are divergences between highs/lows in price and/or TICK which are marked on the chart above. As an aside, we did have a successful buy scalp setup that I have mentioned before.
I also keep an eye out to see if the other TICKs (Nasdaq, and Russell) confirm what's happening on the NYSE TICK. It's a matter of confirmation/non-confirmation and whether we may be in counter-trend, trend, or trend reversal move.
The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at firstname.lastname@example.org
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.