The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

OPEX Thursday

Today's selling got me excited for an intermediate "top", but we need more proof of a turn in sentiment.
We have seen an increase in volume this week and we're sitting right at a gap fill that couldn't get more technically significant. A closer view of the SPY daily; Wouldn't you just love to see a spike and fail into $110?
I've mentioned before that I check the first half hour of Total NYSE shares (symbol is $TVOL on Tradestation) to get keyed in to whether larger time frame players may be participating. Here's what today looked like; almost as big as yesterday. Notice the largest spike in $TVOL occurred on Sept. 2, the bottom of the most recent swing low!
Upward momentum continues to wane. Here's the 60-min SPY (notice the "Slingshot" setup on 9/2, where momentum made a lower low while price made a higher low). Here's how the 30-min is setting up. It looks like a Head & Shoulders pattern, but we've seen this too many times before, we just have to wait to see if we test the 50-EMA and how it reacts on such a test.
Here's the intra-day SPY. Things to point out: My resistance pivot held twice, (2) a little inverted H& S pattern, and (3) a H&S pattern on the macd late in the day. Not highlighted on the chart we also saw a 3-push move to the downside. The first "impulse" move occurred with the break through of the lower keltner channel. We retraced and then a second and third impulse move formed our buy divergence in the 3/10 macd.

Let's check out the NYSE TICK in combination with the SPY on a 1-min. timeframe.
Things to look for are divergences between highs/lows in price and/or TICK which are marked on the chart above. As an aside, we did have a successful buy scalp setup that I have mentioned before.
I also keep an eye out to see if the other TICKs (Nasdaq, and Russell) confirm what's happening on the NYSE TICK. It's a matter of confirmation/non-confirmation and whether we may be in counter-trend, trend, or trend reversal move.

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