The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
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Thursday, October 15, 2009

this fractal market

Started off with an expected range day and ended up breaking out of, and closing on, the highs of the day. The 30-min chart has me excited to see what's on the horizon. Notice the momentum indicator; it had 3 pushes up (sure, it diverges after the first push, but that downward trajectory has been broken (kinda like a trend-line break), but now looks to be building steam for more positive momentum, this thing could blow! Provided it doesn't fizzle and poop.Here's a look at the 1-min with TICK. You could build some promising scalp strategies using this thing!
Zoom in and break-down today's activity as simplified as you can get:

This relentless push up that we've been experiencing since March reminded me of something. A few weeks ago we opened the morning with a vicious sell-off. We began to recover slightly (looking very much like a short-covering wave) and "logic" would have you believe that we would continue lower. What eventually happened, however, was a retracement of the entire sell-off. It looked like this:
It was this sort of behavior in the market that leads me to think; what if?! What if we end up retracing the entire sell-off going back to August '08?! OK, so going back from August '08 wouldn't be a retracement of the ENTIRE sell-off, but you catch my drift. Now look at the weekly: What IF!
So, to say "it can't happen" would be absurd, as this market is entirely fueled off of fear and greed!. Fear that you're going to miss it, and Greed...well, that you're going to miss it!! It doesn't matter what time frame you are on, weekly or 1-minute, the behavior IS possible!
It's even more interesting to look at what happened AFTER the market retraced all of the initial sell-off.Ay Carumba!! That's one crazy move!
It doesn't matter the time frame, the market doesn't like "open space." It needs to test area's that were sliced through in panicked moments. Whether it does it quickly or eventually may determine the volatility AFTER it retraces/digests the move.
After all of that, look even further at what happened (and where we stand currently):

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