The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at toddstrade@gmail.com
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.


Monday, November 9, 2009

Wolfe Wave

I just started reading up on Wolfe Waves, so I wasn't fortunate enough to catch the most recent setups, but they present interesting potential to look out for. I'll provide a bunch of links at the end of this post that you could explore on your own, so I'm not going to go too in depth. I'll just present some basics with the setups that I recently saw develop. Essentially, a Wolfe Wave is an ascending/descending wedge. For the following examples I am using a Bullish Wolfe structure, the concept for the Bearish setup are simply reversed. There are 5-points to a Wolfe Wave which are broken down as follows:
Point-1 is a swing low
Point-2 is a rally off of Point-1
Point-3 is a lower low compared to Point-1
Point-4 is a lower high compared to Point-2
Point-5 is likely to exceed the trend line of 1-3, it is also the entry point for your trade
We start by connecting points 1-3 and 2-4
We could then duplicate the parallel 2-4 line and extend it off of Point-3. This will give us the "sweet spot" where we might expect Point-5 to extendNext, extend a line outward which connects points 1-4, this gives us our EPA (Estimated Price at Arrival)
Finally, we can extend the parallels drawn off of 2-4 & 1-3, find where they intersect and we get our ETA (Estimated Time of Arrival). The ETA is not a hard and fast projection, and should not be used as a basis of staying with a trade.
Some points to remember:
-Watch the 3- & 4-point for resistance and potential failure of the move
-Wolfe Waves typically develop after a trendline is broken
-Look for relatively strong volume on the 5-Point

As you can see above, GS formed a Wolfe Wave on the 30-min chart and fell into the "sweet spot" on Nov. 2nd. Here are a couple more examples:Here are a ton of links (thanks to an amazingly comprehensive and efficient friend) to learn more about this setup:
http://www.marketcalls.in/2009/03/wolfe-wave-pattern-in-nifty.html
http://tryin2trade.blogspot.com/2009/09/nf-hourly-chartwolfe-wave.html
http://forum.as-1.us/viewthread.php?tid=4024&extra=page%3D1&page=1
http://beginnertrader.com/blog/technical-analysis/trading-with-wolfe-waves
http://www.gold2gold.com/webboard/index.php?topic=157.0
http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/56/wolfe-wave-indicator-needed-2686-3.html
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/2009/05/21/managing-the-wolfe-wave/
http://www.voodootrader.com/ta_5.htm
http://chart.nu/ta_3.htm
http://www.marketcalls.in/2009/03/wolfe-wave-pattern-in-nifty.html
http://chart.nu/wolfewave.htm
http://www.nobletrading.com/blogs/2008/05/wolfe-waves-trading-pattern.html
http://www.wolfcharts.com/manual.asp
http://articles.mql4.com/806

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

wow cool!!!!!!

Jules said...

Very interesting stuff, Todd! Thanks for sharing, and for the step by step guidance. You're so kind! :-)
Lovely new look by the way :-) Soothing.

todd said...

Thanks Jules!
My stylist told me that my previous look was all wrong ;)