The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.

Friday, October 30, 2009

pre-Halloween bloodbath

Taking a zoom-in approach to this Friday's SPY auction:
Starting with the 2-min chart with modified NYSE TICK histogram. Selling the Positive TICKS today worked spot on.Keeping it very simple; continued downside was evident after price closed under the 50% retracement (previous day low to high) and later the 50MA. We closed 1% lower than the previous lows.What's ahead? We closed the month with a higher high and, so far, a higher low. To the downside there are conceivably 3 levels of potential support.
After that, there's a lot of empty (untested) space below. A LOT!

Thursday, October 29, 2009


The month of October's two pivots (being that price "bounced" off these levels) were the previous month's Open and, more recently, the previous month's closing price. Observe:

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

More Monthlies

A couple more Monthly charts to take in:


Bulls were owned today while looking for a dip to buy. You only really need to see one chart from today; that being the SPY with TICK distribution, unbelievable:We've nearly filled the gap left from earlier this month:We did breach the trendline in place since the March lows on strong momentum.
Speaking of trendlines, let's look at other markets with a similar theme:
There's the IWM trend broken, ouch!
Ditto the Q's:
The DIA, however, is lagging (but then look at some of the stocks that comprise the Dow Jones Industrial Average, who wants half of 'em?):The Dow Jones Transportation Index leading the way:
These trendline breaches are important in the sense that when we do "bounce" we'll have to watch how these trendlines are tested and/or recovered. Take the Dow Jones Utilities Index for example. It breached its trendline, "bounced" back in an attempt to recover the trendline, only to fail.Watch for snap-backs to these broken trendlines and whether they can recover or if they're seen as opportunities to sell.

As the month turns

As we move into November, take a look at the SPY monthly chart. Currently we sit right on top of the previous month's Close. Crazy huh?

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

doji monster

A doji candle looks innocent enough:But look under the hood of that monster and what do you have? Chop!Something to keep in mind (on all time frames) is that a Doji candle represents a trading range. In other words, there's nothing to trade (nothing "easy" anyway) within a trading range, there are better places for you money. This can be said of the Doji cousins as well; the High Wave candle, Spinning Top, and the silly long-legged Doji.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

RIMM's week ahead

RIMM hasn't been able to get much upside momentum going for it after a disappointing earnings season left it with a 20% haircut.
Looking at the weekly chart and one is tempted to get immediately bearish with that flag setting up:
However, notice that RIMM on the weekly is sitting on top of a 200-MA. While on the daily, yep, another 200-MA! $65 is the line in the sand.

Saturday, October 24, 2009


As goes the Dollar, so goes the markets:Gold (GLD here) sits in a high, tight flag pattern currently
The Financial sector (XLF) had a false breakout this past week, but still bases under that $15.50 levelWhile GS is starting to build a potential bear flag (or potential Right Shoulder of a small H&S pattern)XLE isn't getting the surge perhaps many were looking for, hasn't given up the Resistance to Support changeover.The Transportation Index faltered this week. Watch for a breakdown of the "M"s midpoint:
The Dow Jones Utilities Index has been in a sideways channel since July (the long price stays contained within a range, the stronger the move out of that range).Not something I typically look at, but here's the Dow Jones Equity REIT index, price looks to be "drooping" into that neckline, not good.
And finally, there's the SPY. A down week overall, but interesting where is bounced and found support to close this week. On the Monthly time frame you can see Price found support at September's Highand on the weekly you can see price bounced (on Friday in fact) off of last week's open price.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

things to watch

GS printed a Harami today (on a subtle Hidden Divergence) and bases at previous support on the intra-day:While WFC returned back above $30 support. It had a bounce at the 200MA but look for $30 to hold support.RIMM had a possible double-bottom today (actually a slightly higher low). See if price gets some momentum behind it to make it back to that W's apex


An interesting thing happened with the DJIA today, observe:Using the pivot number of Dow 10,000 today price appeared to make a measured move off of it's lows.

RbS (Resistance becomes Support)

Today the SPY found support at previous resistance (RbS).
Take a look at a split-screen view where we can see the Daily (top chart) and intra-day (15-min on bottom) look at how price reacted this morning.
Price found support at a nice even number ($107.50), filled the gap created on Oct. 14th, and on the 15-min chart printed a hammer-like candle (where the Open and Close where within 20% of the high).

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

bulls getting nervous?

Big sell-off today. Take a look at some charts that I find interesting and perhaps telling.
Double-top on the Russell2000 (confirmation looks to be a close below Oct. 2's closing price).
Nasdaq Composite index approaching a long-term trendline, with the most recent high being on lower momentum.
I mentioned in a previous post the potential importance of 10,000 on the DJIA as a pivot level. Today, however, we sliced right through it:
GS broke down from a long-term trendline, while it approaches both the 50-MA and an intermediate term trendline.While XLF broke out of the trendline. It did so once before and snapped back, but be on guard.

Resistance becomes Support

Two incidents of RbS recently.
USO broke out (and found support on) resistance, a measured move would put it in the $60-range.Meanwhile, on a faster time frame, the DJIA tested previous resistance (and important psychological number; 10,000) yesterday and found temporary support. That round number will be an important pivot point going forward.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

up ahead

AAPL starts our week off with earnings coming out after the close. The run this stock has made over the weeks has been amazing. I'd hate to see what happens if they disappoint.
Recently price has rounded off, likely a result of profits being taken with that big wall of overhead resistance looming.FCX - earnings on Wednesday. The past week left price in a doji star pattern.FCX has had quite the run after putting in it's rounded bottom. Currently looks a bit congested at the top of that trend line and at a strong level of resistance.
Price currently sits within a congestion level, look for a strong move in either direction.WFC - earnings out Wednesday before the open. This is on wacky weekly chart!
The daily shows price recently breaking out of that base and now coming down for a re-test of that $29.5 number.While the 30- shows the most recent downside momentum cutting very deep, while price remained holding a higher low.