The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
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Thursday, March 11, 2010

energizer bunny rally

In yesterday's post I marked up a chart of the SPY using the Stevenson PTT method. Here's a continuation of that chart into today's session.As you can see the target for the Regular Cycle after the open came right on time and fell within a penny of the PTT. It also happened to fall within previous volume clusters and Tuesday's Point of Control(more on this later). The ensuing rally out of this area then formed our Inverted Cycle and, though it rapidly approached the PTT, fell short of the mark before entering it's Regular Cycle. Two things can be garnered from the two middle cycles today.
- The first IC of the day fell short of it's target, but approached it in a rapid pace.
- The RC that followed fell well short of it's target, and instead morphed into smaller cycles on the smaller time frame, turning price higher, like so:
Back to the volume cluster levels. Here's a look at the most recent day's volume distribution, where I marked the strongest levels. Yesterday's distribution level $115.11-115.16 is our VPC. Transferring those levels onto a price chart, here are the 3 bands I was looking at going into today:
The lower range acted as nice support, while the VPC from yesterday was a level of potential resistance (though we didn't quite make it that far this morning, price did hesitate within it later in the afternoon). The middle set of hash marks ($114.92-114.8) saw price acceptance rotate within it's range through most of the day.
The price congestion at the Open is highlighted in a rectangle. At this point a surge of volume allowed our open to act as support.

It seems that the only hope for a bearish outcome to this rally (even if that merely means a reasonable pullback) may be a 2B top. In which case we should look for a close under today's low within these next few sessions.

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