A quick read you might want to check out;
New Frontiers in Fibonacci Trading by Michael Jardine
In it Michael Jardine (of enthios.com) introduces the concept of Market Structure Highs (MSH) and Market Structure Lows (MSL) that then give birth to the Seed Wave.
First, the MSL and MSH. Quite simple really;
Market Structure High = A High, followed by a Higher High, followed by a lower high which ideally closes lower than it opened. This pattern forms your market structure high.
Market Structure Low = A Low, followed by a Lower Low, followed by a higher low which ideally closes higher than it opened, this pattern forms your market structure low.
Below is the SPY market with MSHs (Blue down triangle) and MSLs (Green Up triangle);It's important to keep these structures in context. You would be looking for a MSH as an indication that a prior Up TREND may be reversing or correcting. Likewise, you're looking for a MSL as an indication that a previous Down TREND may be reversing or correcting. So, a choppy, sideways market may contain these price patterns but that doesn't really fit the context of this concept.
Next, we look for these structures to trigger. In the case of a MSL, a long trigger entry occurs once price exceeds the high of the third bar in the series. Like so;
The reverse is true for a MSH. A short trigger occurs once price exceeds the low of the third bar in the series, like so;
Once we define a potential weakening of price we wait for the first wave to form. When we see a Market Structure High, followed by a Market Structure Low, followed then by a lower Market Structure High, we then have our "Seed Wave". As this second MSH forms we then look for our trigger short entry based on the above criteria.
Here's an example from a trade taken in FCX today: The first MSH labeled on the above chart is actually a lower MSH than the previous swing high occurring on the open last Friday, so perhaps you may have been looking to short the trigger on that series.
Without giving away too much from the book, the lower MSH (or higher MSL) is always a Wave 2 in a 5-wave structure. Once you have this seed wave you can then draw Fibonacci Retracement levels to give you potential targets. Since the lower MSH (in the chart above) is wave 2, you look for a termination of Wave 3 as your first target. According to Michael Jardine, the W3 termination occurs between the 138.2% - 161.8% retracement levels (snapped off of the W1-W2 high to low). While the termination of W5 occurs around the (223.6% - 261.8% retracement levels).
The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at firstname.lastname@example.org
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.