The SPY closed right under it's 50-MA today, if it can clear the $117.50 level a test of $118.00-$118.50 seems reasonable. This happens to coincide with a 20-period Moving Average and a 78.6% retracement level.It's funny, with all the drama over the last week, what were we left with? We simply got (so far) a test of our 200-MA while putting in a higher low (only a computer could have pulled off a price low of $105 on the SPY, giving us a higher low by $0.42).
The talking heads are fabricating history by saying Thursday's free-fall was merely a computer glitch, and with the indices canceling orders on stocks that were 60% outside of their price range they have both conspired to effectively negate the long tail we see on most charts. It's as if 90% of all tails extending beyond their real bodies for Thursday's daily candle is going to be ignored (UNLESS we end up testing those tails in these next few weeks).
Once again the Russell2000 has recovered strongly and actually closed above it's 20-MA today. Remember what happened last time we sold off and price came back to test the 78.6% retracement on this issue?...consolidation followed by continuation.In other words, it ain't over 'til it's over. And looking at this chart doesn't make a case for the bulls in my opinion.
The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at firstname.lastname@example.org
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