SPY closed the week in a position to chomp away at the overhead supply left from Q4 2008. A pretty serious level, and we could probably expect selling at key resistance levels initially, but the more time we spend up here then what? Price is within 15% of all-time highs and we could correct 5%, 10% or more and still look pretty stable. If we correct 5-8% and trace out a Right Shoulder, we could then have a measured move back to the '07 highs!
An important aspect of what price has done so far (imo) is the amount of fill we've done in the "Lehman Gap" range ($107-$110).
Now that we're above the 50% retracement is this now a glass-half-full market?
Here's a look at the QQQQ....Inverse Head & Shoulder breakout with a measured move to the Y2K initial impulse move lows! Think of how epic that chart would look should that measured move happen...you'd see it in every Technical Analysis tome forever.
However, not only has the recent ascent been steep and fast, there also seems to be a w5 count here if I'm not mistaken. That, coupled with a hardcore resistance level overhead, makes me on guard for a correction by year end.
Some other observations:
Transports 12% off of all-time highs
Utilities look uninspired, but are building a base under a significant resistance level:
DJIA closed just under it's 61.8%...the Dow could shed 800-1000 points and still have solid support:
The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at firstname.lastname@example.org
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