The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
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Saturday, June 25, 2011

Support holds

....until it doesn't.  The need for a flush is getting palpable, but with the last of the quarter coming up this week will the window-dressers allow that to happen?  The SPY got its bounce at the 200-MA only to have more supply unloaded on the resulting rally.  So, support continues to hold but the SPY closed on Friday at its lowest point since March.

While on a long-term perspective, a bounce at our long-running trend-line would seem logical

We've moved into a consolidation phase of the June 01 momentum selling, hence a lot of wide swings

We've seen these things before, for example following the flash crash of last year (no window dressing for money managers at the end of that quarter)

Interesting; this will (should) be only the second down quarter in 9 quarters since the '09 lows, both of which occurring for the June ending quarter.  Just an interesting observation about how the tops in this chart formed.  Both with long-legged green dojis.

Of course the catalyst for all this is the commodity unwind.  The CRB Index has yet to complete a measured move from this sell-off

and if the dollar breaks out from this wedge, a measured move back to resistance could be in the cards.  Risk off?

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