The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

SMH 3 pushes

3-pushes to a low in the SMH 

This is the first time since July 26th that price has tested the 50-day MA.  The Fibonacci projections are based off of the most recent seed wave (low of 09/06 to the high of 09/08).  Price seems to have met with some supply at the confluence of this 50% Fib. projection and the 50-day MA.
Looking at the volume makes me wonder if this wasn't some sort of stop-sweep behavior that strong hands were selling into, but it doesn't make sense that it would be actual buyers coming in AT THIS LEVEL?   Being that price is under the 200-day and 50-day MA and price makes a corrective move into a Moving Average that hasn't been tested in 35 trading days, do you think the "smart money" is buying at this level (causing that volume....aside from the fact that it is Triple Witching OpEx week which tends to skew volume levels to begin with).  There is a ton of overhead supply to chew through and maybe we will, but the simple observation remains; price, in this particular market, is in a bearish orientation which often favors a fading resistance.
And if you're not convinced then what does this chart below tell you?  More than half of today's volume came in the selling frenzy that occurred in the last 30-minutes of trading:

No comments: