It seems a case can be made for either long or short at this point, depending largely on the time frame your context is framed in. Next year could really be setting up for a big move one way or the other.
From left to right we have the S&P500 monthly, followed by the weekly and daily charts.
For the bullish side we have:
- Higher time frame shows two very strong momentum moves up followed by divergent bearish moves (the most recent higher lows on lower momentum led to a buy divergence). We are currently setting up the 3rd momentum move up. Long term moving average is trending up.
- The weekly time frame is forming a 3d long setup with key resistance to overcome but giving price projections into the 1400s. Price is above longer-term moving average and trying to build value higher on the short & intermediate term moving averages.
- Daily time frame had a very strong bullish momentum move right up against the 200-day MA. Price is pulling back in a very shallow price range (correcting in time rather than through price) building strength for the next move. Short & Intermediate moving averages are oriented bullish as well.
For the bears:
- The monthly time frame indicates impending bullish momentum, but this momentum can diverge (for instance say we test 1400 and momentum is weaker than previous), or not diverge (giving us the right shoulder of a H&S pattern). Either instance leads to a 2b short setup which are always tops. The intermediate moving average is trending down into the long-term average (perhaps the first time the 50- & 200-month moving averages will have ever touched?).
- Making it above 1300 is half the battle, but doing so steadily with modest corrections lower is healthy. It took 9-weeks to establish this range higher above 1200. All moving averages are sloping down with the intermediate period average trying to level out.
- The daily momentum is divergent (higher momentum, lower price). Price is below a down-sloping 200-period moving average.
Another bearish thought is what follows on the monthly chart. A lower low isn't bullish. The '08-'09 momentum move (lower low) was very much bearish, and the '09-'11 move which followed was corrective in nature. So, price could fall into this very long-term triangle. That wouldn't necessarily be end-of-the-world bearish, but it would result in a long-term digestive phase that is more aligned with its life-long trend line.
The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at firstname.lastname@example.org
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.