The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

buy the dip

Was watching GS towards the close yesterday because of a 3d setup.  I pulled the long entry for a b/e trade and wasn't around for the last 15-min of the day to catch the move which ended up carrying through today.  Rather than enter on the open I waited for a pullback after the first hour (almost) as price flagged and found support at a previous resistance level.

The trend has been strong these past 3 days and all dips being bought.  Entry after a pullback of the faster time frame 3/10 macd and exits at the 50% & 100% Fib. projections (measured off of the PDC to today's Open).

Monday, June 27, 2011


Missed some long setups on AMZN, POT, CLF.  Wasn't until the 1:00CST that some 3d entries set up.  Didn't take GS (felt like I was chasing), while BTU was nice and easy.

Probably should have exited at the Open for half, but it remained strong.

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Support holds

....until it doesn't.  The need for a flush is getting palpable, but with the last of the quarter coming up this week will the window-dressers allow that to happen?  The SPY got its bounce at the 200-MA only to have more supply unloaded on the resulting rally.  So, support continues to hold but the SPY closed on Friday at its lowest point since March.

While on a long-term perspective, a bounce at our long-running trend-line would seem logical

We've moved into a consolidation phase of the June 01 momentum selling, hence a lot of wide swings

We've seen these things before, for example following the flash crash of last year (no window dressing for money managers at the end of that quarter)

Interesting; this will (should) be only the second down quarter in 9 quarters since the '09 lows, both of which occurring for the June ending quarter.  Just an interesting observation about how the tops in this chart formed.  Both with long-legged green dojis.

Of course the catalyst for all this is the commodity unwind.  The CRB Index has yet to complete a measured move from this sell-off

and if the dollar breaks out from this wedge, a measured move back to resistance could be in the cards.  Risk off?

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

gap up trend day

Gap up above resistance trend day.  Recent downside (test of support) momentum has been non-existent.  In the chart below it's helpful to notice the cup with handle pattern the 3/10macd forms over the past couple days where we test support.  Especially when we make a lower low and form that inverse H & S price bar pattern.

After the first half-hour we had momentum bringing us just under a previous gap zone.  The break of this bar is a move into the gap-zone (filling longer-term short covering orders) where the next resistance level is the close of the pre-gap day:

While the opening momentum extended to the 200% projection (PDC to tOpen)

The most helpful the 3/10 macd can be on days such as these, I find, is on the faster time frame (higher time frame will just point to the obvious (trend day), where I'm just looking for bearish & bullish readings to give me a heads-up on the directional trade.
For instance, 2b &/or 2c short indications or 3a/1a or 1b to 1a long indications:

Oh yeah, and the SPY triggered a 3d long entry on the daily chart on Monday's close:

Monday, June 20, 2011

SPY morning setup

SPY 3d set up this morning with a perfect bull flag to guide entry.

Watching the faster time frame you can see areas of buyers stepping in on a retrace to the initial impulse points

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

opposite of yesterday

Going into yesterday's close there were a number of stocks that I watch setting up the 2b criteria.  The exact opposite of the 3d criteria.  It is what it is.  If you're confused and care to dig deeper, all of the documents in the sidebar to the right explain my approach, particularly regarding the 3/10 MACD oscillator.
So, like yesterday, being that the gap down was pretty steep the 2b criteria was pretty much complete with the opening gap down.  So, there will either be a pullback that is shorted or a rally that will cause dip buyers to come in later in the morning.  In terms of the 3/10macd, what set up this morning was the 4c to 4d continuation short which triggers on the 5-minute chart as the 4c criteria.

Look to breakout points and what price does when it returns to those points for clues.
Speaking of 2b short setup.  It was triggered a while ago on the SPY weekly chart

Two more 4d short setups.  The 4c condition exists, so you're anticipating 4d to trigger by watching the 5-minute 3/10 macd to turn bearish. 

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

more of the same

Nearly every one of the 25 names I watch set up the 3d criteria going into the close yesterday, a scenario which was hinting at today's relief "rally".  These wide gaps are more tricky, so you either enter on a faster chart or wait for a pullback later in the morning.  All of my watch-list technically triggered the 3d entry on the close of the first 5-min bar, so you could possibly just enter and place a stop below the 50% retracement or whatever support level you feel is reasonable.
AMZN - same resistance pivot as yesterday turned support today, 2 entries

CNX - was ready early

better viewed on a faster chart, the stop was very close by

CAT - ready shortly after CNX, formed a nice cup & handle to enter.  Would have been a good one to re-enter later in the day as well

Monday, June 13, 2011

morning setups

A couple 3d setups coming into the morning.  As I have said before, the 3d setup is typical of a short-covering/stop-triggering behavior.  So, know where strong/weak resistance levels might be located and plan accordingly.
AMZN set up the 3d going into the close of Friday.  The second 5-min bar triggered an entry, while overhead was $189 resistance

On the smaller timeframe it is easier to determine where "minor" resistance levels may be; I think about in terms of "where would shorts sellers have break-even cover orders placed?" (especially those shorts which may be late to the game).  It's these orders that I'm anticipating a possible short squeeze to bring price up to a major resistance level/target. 

CSX was another 3d setup going into Friday's close. 

Again, where would possible break-even levels be that could trigger a short-covering pop, and likewise, where might a major resistance level be that higher time frames may be entering in the direction of prevailing momentum?

Friday, June 10, 2011

sometimes... just get lucky:
Intra-day 3d setup in GS got long 1-minute before the move up:

I have a few examples in this document that show GS pulling this very move; a breakdown that consolidates before squeezing higher.  Some stocks just have a behavior pattern all their own.

Thursday, June 9, 2011

GS daily

Setting up a 3d long on the daily chart. Not a setup that happens often, but worth watching for a breakout of resistance. Otherwise, it can roll over, providing a good short opportunity.
So far there have been three (higher) momentum pushes on lower lows.  The previous day was an inverted hammer and today a green closing higher low.  Still a deal of selling tails at resistance, but provided we don't take out $131.50 we could see a bit of a rally to clear out some overhead stops.

 Watching these Support levels that closely coincide with Fib. retracements


A lame trade in BHI today that should have been revisited.  Lame entry, lame exit, lame runner:

back to the usual

3d setup this morning in RIMM

Resistance areas based on previous breakdowns were as follows.

Monday, June 6, 2011


Off to Seattle until Sunday (any recommendations are appreciated :)

Updated results:

 Here are a few charts with S/R I have for the week ahead.




updated:  a bit too many resistance levels