The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.

Friday, July 29, 2011

more the same

3d long entries:
Strongly bearish breadth.  Be quick with longs.
Never made it to 100% projection, took profit on bearish candle

GS; Awful to sit through.  Never made it to my second stop order of $136.46.

SPY; Didn't take this one as I'm tired of the SPY whippiness

Thursday, July 28, 2011

FCX - A risky trade in the sense that there seemed to be more overhead resistance than usual (Open, vwap, and that big selling momentum bar).  But it was a 3d setup and had a reverse divergence going for it.  Target was simply the point of price failure, which happened to coincide with the area where price broke down the day before ($54.80 area).

GS had a strong open off of a double bottom.  Seeing it wasn't breaking down gave consideration for a gap fill attempt.  There should be a second down arrow on the 5-min chart at around $137.25 as half the position was exited at the 50% retracement measured between Tuesday's close and Wednesday's Open

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

just short

Very bearish day.  With market breadth extreeeeemly week all day.  If one was to miss the opening sequence short and were looking for a pullback to short, what I typically do is to look for the 5-min chart to turn back over negative (the fast line/histogram).  It's often reliable, but most important the price confirmation is there; failed retest of the breakdown point.
Daily, with support levels below; 2b short triggered yesterday.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

What worked:
 3d long setup in the SPY today

What didn't work:
 I mentioned at the end of last week I was looking to get long AMZN at around the $214 level for continuation higher.  While I did get long around that level I got out once for a scratch yesterday and again (yesterday) for a loss.

Friday, July 22, 2011

AMZN long

AMZN long off of an inverted hammer bottoming seed wave.

On the faster time frame you can better see the bottoming pattern trace itself out.  It's a reliable pattern to watch for to trade a bottoming pattern intraday; kind of an inverse H & S with two heads; with either a slightly lower low as in this case or, just as valid, a slightly higher low

Look closer at the 15-min chart, it's tracing out the same chart pattern as the one outlined on the 3-min chart above.  Look to buy $214 on Monday if price holds that support, if it fails it, look to short $214 on retest.

nflx long

3d long setup on NFLX today
5-min chart gave a lousy trigger entry

much better on the 3-min

Thursday, July 21, 2011

continuation move

A continuation move, and on strong volume!  I thought price only went DOWN on volume in this market?  There is still a layer of resistance overhead, so we could still get a failure to break through, but this is a step in the right (bullish) direction.  A 50% projection target on this seed wave comes out to the $140 level.
This short squeeze game has been playing out for the past two years non-stop.  Today was yet another example of price gaping up and triggering short positions to be covered.  It would be critical for price not to close too bearish tomorrow (also through next week) as then there would still be hope (for bearish positions) for a double top type formation, around the $135.50 area or even the $137 level.

However....where the SPY and DIA have more of a bullish tone, the IWM & QQQ are lagging (non-confirmation?) and have more room for bearish supply coming into the market.
DIA - still room for a double-top

IWM - still plenty of room for error.  I can see it being a better setup if it came down slightly to put in a right shoulder to an inverted H&S
QQQ- plenty of room for a double top or failed breakout overhead
also, all four of these index ETF's are still within a Head & Shoulders formation on the weekly time frame (charts to those were posted yesterday).

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

just charts

Looking at the weekly SPY;  A head & shoulders pattern stands out (mirror image pattern as that of the bottoming pattern from the flash crash recovery (April through September of 2010).  It appears that the market bulls are at a critical juncture if prices cant begin to follow through from the momentum candle 3-weeks ago.
While the daily chart shows we had a strong selling binge from May through most of June wherein we corrected over 75% of that move on a strong squeeze which ended in an evening star pattern.  The 3/10macd may be setting up a 2a/2b criteria which often results in a good shorting opportunity.  I think a strong close at/above $134 may invigorate another bullish advance, but also feel that the overhead gap zone will see heavy supply come in.

This is what I'm looking at in terms of S/R

Meanwhile, the QQQ is interesting;  The weekly also looking like a topping pattern. The most recent move up registered a reverse divergence (higher momentum reading on a lower high) which would trigger on a tick down in the histogram.
The daily nearly printed a dark cloud cover pattern ("nearly" in that technically it is supposed to close at least 50% of the previous green bar, but fell shy of that). Also setting up that 2a-to-2b short setup. 

Here's an example of that 2a-to-2b short setup on the IWM weekly.  The idea is that the 3/10macd slow line is trending down as the fast line corrects into it, and it is triggered by a tick down in the histogram (indicated with blue arrows.  There was one instance that turned out to be a less than stellar trigger, but the others worked quite well (on a return to support-test basis).  However, the slow line now seems to be at a crossroads; it can turn up with added upside momentum, or it can lose its positive slope and continue negative.
The daily chart of the IWM is hinting at more immediate upside and if that's the case the strength of the upside test will have to prove itself on a closing basis, otherwise it looks to possibly trigger a 2a-to-2b short signal.

One other intriguing chart is that of the SMH.
The weekly is triggering (should the week close with the histogram ticking down as it currently is, but that IF remains) a 4c-to-4d short entry.  While the daily is waiting on the very same setup to trigger.  The chart had a few reverse divergences to work off, but what gives a bearish lean to this chart is how quickly the large green weekly bar 3-weeks ago was quickly wiped out.  A tell would be to see how successful price is in testing the overhead gap left from July 12th.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Monday, July 18, 2011

Posted this chart a few times last week as it updated.  We broke down from our up-trend line and are in a throw-back process that coincides with a down trend line.  TICK is diverging positively so far.
Price has reached the measured move from the H & S pattern mentioned last week and filled the gap left from 6/28 coinciding with a 61.8% retracement

Had a bunch of support levels close together at these 1290 levels on the ES, corresponding to the 61.8% Fib. retrace

The ES came just shy of a 150% projection off of its seed wave setup and continues to test lower

same setups

Three trades, all of the same ilk. 
Counter-trend bottoming formations.
Seed wave patterns with a 50% correction forming the higher low.  Targets being the 50% & 100% projections.

GS - If you notice, the inverted hammer candlestick IS a seed wave unto itself.

Friday, July 15, 2011


Updated charts from previous posts this week regarding the ES and SPY.
Lows coincided with a throwback to a down trend line where we worked into a sideways base on more muted TICK readings:

Updated 60-min ES chart with prior S/R levels.

seed wave

Two seed wave setups in the SPY today:
The first fell within a few cents of its 100% projection while the second was strong into the close.

The second seed wave later in the day I was anticipating because of a 3d setup on the 30-min chart. double bottom on solid support that closed above a resistance level that was tested all day long:

Thursday, July 14, 2011

where we're at

Another extreme negative TICK while taking out the previous day lows (but NOT BY MUCH).  The ship isn't quite sinking on these extreme TICKS. 
Two throwbacks to the down sloping trend line that we broke out of on Wednesday.  We could certainly be in a bounce-able level here.  Basically a 50% retracement at a decent support  level.  

Would certainly look to buy for a bounce if we see $129.84 price as it coincides with the original up-sloping trendline and the projected measured move out of the H & S pattern that recently set up.  I would have to think anything lower, down to $129.50 should draw in strong buying interest.

A 3d long entry was setting up on the close today.  Curious to see what comes of it, however, it wasn't quite ready on the faster time frame.  Also, there's a higher low (nearly double-bottom) seed wave going into the close, so there's that.


Posted on last night.  Extreme negative TICK fade coming into today (lower TICK on higher lows):

Bounce got faded quickly...

Wednesday, July 13, 2011


Updated chart off of last nights post.  Didn't reach the 100% extension of the seed wave.  But S/R was decent.

3d setups this morning

A lot of 3d setups into the close yesterday, so they were on the watchlist for this morning.
 CLF -  two sets of Fibs to base targets on; from the previous days seed wave to this morning's gap range

MON - again, two sets of Fibs to base targets off of, the ideal entry was at the break of the first 15-min candle's high

QCOM - lost patience with this one and got out as it started coming back to the base

Wish I would have taken POT instead of the QCOM

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

so simple... hindsight.
The @ES 60-min chart bounced just above a 61.8% retracement.  Of course the bounce occurred in the Euro session. 
Since Monday's Open the intra-day trend has been down.
Coming into this morning's session the 3/10macd was in a 3d setup multi-swing divergence.
Seed wave located within the shaded area.

A look in closer

and a closer look on the faster time frame

Monday, July 11, 2011

long bonds

TLT - A three-layered approach to keep things in perspective;  the long-term (Moving Averages) was aligned strongly bullish, the intermediate (15-min 3/10 macd) was strongly bullish, and the short-term time frame triggered a buy when the fast line turned positive.

FCX set up a (counter-"trend") buying opportunity on a momentum buy divergence which on the 5-min time frame was a 3d setup.  The Fib. projections were based on the 1-min chart where the seed wave was easier to identify.  Only held for the move to the Open.