The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at toddstrade@gmail.com
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.


Saturday, March 3, 2012

week ending 03_02

Taking a look at some weekly charts.
Starting with the elephant in the room, the laggard IWM
Showing a third weekly lower high, however, this "lower high" wouldn't technically confirm unless it took out the $70's.  Still plenty of room (and time) for a constructive pullback with solid support at $75

But first there could be "dip-buyer" support at the 50-day Moving Average, coinciding with a gap-fill

Following that up with the leader of this market, the QQQ which is in breakout mode and running into a supply level not seen since 2001 (February coincidentally).  There are 3 Fibonacci levels drawn on the chart below and there's a confluence of resistance at the $70 mark.  $70 turns out to be the 50% retracement off of the 2000 high to 2002 low (1-2), while there's also a 50% projection off of the c-d wave at the $70 area, AND the upper median line to the Andrew's pitchfork.  Not to say we'll get there in a straight line (though you never know), rather just something to keep in mind.

The SPY came within pennies of reaching a 100% Fib. projection this past week off of the Nov./Dec (c-d) wave:

While the SPY weekly chart continues to show a divergence in momentum with the ever so slight higher high achieved this week

The Dow Jones (DIA below) is also showing a bearish divergence at the higher high while price is getting awfully thin and looking to be falling out of this rising wedge.


As the XLF attempts to break out further it appears to be having difficulty as it pushes into the $15 mark (on waning momentum) a pullback to the apex of the "W-bottom" (inverse Head & Shoulders) would be constructive.

JPM is leading the charge on the XLF front but a move into $42 could see some profit-taking where there is a confluence of resistance in the form of a 50% Fib. projection, a throw-back to a previous trend line and a prior supply level.


Still watching Copper base under previous supply level.  You could see potential for this to be a cup with handle pattern if it consolidates constructively under that $3.95 mark without giving up much below the $3.70's

Given the large move in Gold this week, there is still the possibility that we see a higher low and therefore an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern.  Gold is no stranger to long-lasting consolidation patterns

Silver remains within a channel, again, not so uncommon following that shock-to-the-system selling back in May of last year.  Strength would be to see this bounce at around $30 and re-test the upper channel line.  A break of $30 could signal a sharper move to the lower channel line.


While Crude Oil has shown a lot of strength these past few weeks, notice how it interacted with the supply zone beginning at $110, nearly retracing the previous week's range entirely.

The  $110 area was faded to start last week and pulled back mildly.  On news of the Saudi oil pipeline explosion price rallied hard into the $110 mark and was sold quite decisively.  Watching that $105-$105.75 support area

 Finally, there's the U.S. Dollar, putting in it's first strong week in some time.  It will be worth keeping a close watch for further strength and the possible correlations it will have with equity/commodity prices.

2 comments:

Darah said...

gotta question, how do i subscribe my blog to the blogroll.com website

todd said...

blogroll.com website? Did you try typing your question into a search engine?