The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.

Saturday, April 21, 2012

week ending 4_20

The three most interesting charts to me coming into the last two weeks of April are Gold, Treasuries & the U.S. Dollar Index.
Treasuries (in this case the TLT) have yet to sell off below the $100 mark despite the vapor rise in equities this year.  This weekly chart (left) simply looks like a pullback in a bullish trend:

Gold - The weekly is testing this long-standing trend line and a breakdown (under, say, $1620) could force a much larger correction.

The Inverse Head & Shoulders on the daily (below, right) is still valid, but further downside will begin to erode that premise.

The U.S. Dollar Index had a week of mostly selling (equities & dollar selling this week?) but the weekly trend line is still intact (though there is a 2b short setup on the 3/10macd).  If price breaks down there is a chance this weekly chart (below, left) forms an inverse Head & Shoulders (indicated by the empty ellipse)

What looked like a Head & Shoulders pattern on the EURUSD daily ended up holding the neckline this week and squeeze higher.  There is a potential 3d setup on the weekly (below, left) with a seed wave that has held the 50% retracement on multiple tests, so watch for a breakout of the wedge that has formed on the Daily:

Crude Oil may have formed an inverse Head & Shoulders on the Daily (below, right) and is possibly setting up the 3d setup (which you will see when the higher time frame is setting up the 2d criteria), definitely watch for a break out from the daily channel

Copper - had a strong day on Friday as it held this confluence of Fib. retracement at support, a retest of the previous breakdown point looks in order.

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