Will be telling in the coming week/s what happens with the EURUSD pair. After a seemingly strong week, the Euro broke above 1.31 on strength (potential long considerations with up arrows) and through an overhead trend line, but there is some resistance to consider through to the 1.34's. Most concerning is the weekly 3/10macd fast line remaining under the slow line, which can still cross positively but we have to wait and see follow-through momentum in the week ahead. The trade was to position for a breakout of the 1.31 base (up-arrows), so chasing at this point isn't desirable, so it's a matter of seeing how strong momentum is going forward.
This chart in reverse gives us the U.S. Dollar Index.
The bearish potential here is that this week finally broke down from a bear flag, a large bear flag, which could measure to at least 76. We can also see the potential for a decent Head & Shoulders pattern.
The one bullish premise can be considered in the form of the 3d criteria (highlighted region), where the 3/10macd fast line is correcting into a positively sloping slow line. We see this criteria on both the weekly and daily 3/10 macd. A trigger to the weekly 3/10 macd would be to see the daily fast line go green (positive) without much further negative momentum from this point. The 3d criteria is often a short squeeze type of environment (and can often see an inverse head and shoulders or 3-pushes to a low type of price pattern), which we could see happening if strength follows a failed break down of this past week (and squeezing shorts out). So, again, it's a matter of gauging continued EURUSD momentum in the week ahead.
The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at firstname.lastname@example.org
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.