The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012


I have been a Gold bull for many years.  But that bullishness is coming to a real test in the coming weeks and months.

First of all, the following is a monthly and weekly chart pairing for Gold.  So, the time perspective has to be considered (in other words, it will take some time to play out (though real "Get-Me-Out-of-My-Long-Positions" weakness tends to play out a lot faster than strength does).

The monthly chart was showing potential for the 2b criteria to be setting up (as the 3/10macd fast line pulls into a negatively sloping slow line that itself has potential to be pulled negative).  The basic gist is, it's a long-term  " XYZ "corrective wave.   The setup for that criteria is actually to catch the "Z" portion of the corrective wave, which could end near previous lows OR sell steeper into another support zone.  We can represent that in the following way where X1Y1Z1 reflect the longer term structure (which is what the 2b criteria highlights):

Alternatively, we could entertain the possibility that this is, rather, an  "ABC" Impulse wave, like so:

Since this has been in such a bullish trend, and for so long, the approach should typically be to "Buy Dips".  So, throughout this correction you are anticipating the higher time frame (monthly) 3/10 macd to turn back green on the fast line.  To anticipate that we look to enter on a bullish 3/10 macd orientation on the faster time frame (weekly), which is what we saw in late August (up-arrows reflecting potential long considerations) :

 After price achieved it's Fib. projected targets, price pulled back and looked to be going back to test the highs.  Everything was going swimmingly...until last week.

So, price fulfilled the targets for the bullish setup.
But in the longer term perspective, it made ANOTHER lower high, the third in the past year (not mentioning the 2 previous lower lows as well).  The aforementioned bullish scenario we were looking for (anticipating the monthly chart's 3/10 macd fast line to turn green indicating continued bullishness) should remain bullish (by the fast line continuing to tick UP positively).
A way of anticipating the ticking down of the fast line on the higher time frame (like it appears to be doing at this point) would be to look for an XYZ wave on the faster time frame, which is what seems to have triggered on the close of last week's bar.  The current "seed wave" (should it break point "X") has the following Fib. projection targets (highlighted).

So...the short trigger was set in motion ($1712.70).  The first barrier to lower prices would be the "X" point, roughly around $1675.00.  Just below this is the 50% retrace from May lows to October highs around $1668.40

IF prices get held up at this confluence between $1668-$1675 and get a decent bounce then there's a chance that the weekly chart's 3/10 macd fast line would tick back up (warning to your short positions that were based on the XYZ seed wave premise).  The fast line on that time frame would actually look like a little cup with handle pattern and a green turn could be an actionable long entry (as a way of anticipating the higher monthly time frame fast line ticking back up).
But for now the premise is short with targets at the Fib. projections 50% and 100% (1612 & 1549).

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