The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.

Saturday, July 28, 2012


This looks to be (on the SPY) our 3rd throwback to a broken (steep) trend line (fourth if you count the 08/11 break to the  04/12 throwback).  Just the type of behavior that could get pretty climactic.

Thursday, July 26, 2012

thurs 7_26

SPY gap up day.
Price sold off showing a falling wedge on a reverse divergence.
Three potential entries.  I entered on the first up-arrow (5-min chart) for the 50- & 100% projection targets.  Later re-entered on the third up-arrow with a target of the day's high (corresponding with the lows of 7/20).

Wed. 7_25

Been a while since I've posted, I'll try to post more setups going forward.
 Previous day (7/24) was a 3d setup into the close.  Coming in to this day price tried hold previous resistance as support, eventually tested lower only to recover support.  The long setup was anticipation of a strengthening macd (1a criteria) following a reverse divergence.
The up-arrows indicate potential entry points (I took the 3rd one), while using the Fibonacci projections as exit targets.

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

bear flag

Bear flag setup in the SPY yesterday.  A particularly poor trade on my behalf, getting out WAY too soon and failing to get back in when I realized I got out way too soon.
In criteria jargon, this is a 2d-4c continuation setup.  Again, it's just a bear flag, I use the criteria as a way to subjectively identify it with the indicator.  It is just the fast line pulling into a down sloping slow line that is crossing (or has crossed) the zero line.
I partialled out for around 134.70 average, ugh

Friday, July 6, 2012

3d into the close

3d setup on the SPY.  I've mentioned before that the best time for them to set up is after the 2:00pm hour and into the 2:30 period.  The price characteristic going into them is either a Head & Shoulders or 3-pushes (first push here was the open gap down) to a low where the lower low results in a bear trap short squeeze.  Exits taken at vwap and the Open price. (horizontal black dots).

Monday, July 2, 2012

now what

A quick look at the SPY weekly/daily charts after what has developed over the previous week.
The weekly chart shows the 3/10macd fast line crossing over the slow line (theoretically bullish).  This is the first bullish sign in three months.  Now, this can either be the beginning of a fresh bullish cycle or it can turn out to be a dud pullback that rolls over, like it did in July of last year (labeled "hump").
So far the daily is showing resilience and attempting to push through overhead resistance.  There exists the ideal progression, wherein we get a 3d setup (which in this case showed itself in the form of a bear squeeze) followed by a move higher (back into the Moving Averages window) to test overhead supply, then a pullback (2c-d) which is met with strong demand.  All-in-all looking buy-the-dip bullish.
If that weekly chart turns out to be a "hump" I would be looking for signs of weakness on the daily chart coming in the form of a failed support test (4c criteria).

Last week's range

The following is the SPY range for the week of June 25-29 including overnight activity.  Blue vertical dash line indicates the regular trading hours open while the fuchsia horizontal lines indicate the overnight high & low.
Monday - straight down out of the gate

Tuesday - attempted breakout of the o/n_high.  Failure pulled price out to the -50% projection before moving directly back to the o/n_high.  Breakout, retest, continuation out to the +100% projection.
Wednesday - tight overnight range (not giving up much from the previous day's close).  Breakout of the o/n_high, pullback test, continuation out to the +150% projection.

Thursday - opened coming into the o/n_low, chopping around it for most of the morning.   Seemed to trend down ever since the o/n_range's high print until the short squeeze.

Friday - trend continued in the o/n session.  After the open price spent a good period of time chopping around the o/n_high before extending higher.