The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Wed. 01_02

I made a slight change from the original text in this post Re: SPY stop expectancy.

today's trade:
A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Some stop-outs in the morning/afternoon until the last hour (of course).  Buying in anticipation of the 2c-2d criteria setup playing out.  (I had to tweak the chart in order for the 5-minute 3/10macd to show well, which is why the early morning is out of frame):

On a higher time frame (swing) perspective today was a stop-out day.  The weekly/daily split was looking short based on the weekly 2b criteria (bear flag breakdown).  The trigger was short at $142.35 on 12/24. Monday's engulfing candle was a big warning (bullish engulfing off of the 200-dayMA).  It would have been wise to remove half the position on Monday while the SPY swing stop expectancy is around $1+/-, so today's Open was a complete stop-out.

The other warning sign was the time frame lower when the 65m showed (and followed-through with) the 3d criteria:

So, our weekly chart looks ready to test all-time highs (notice the 3/10macd showing a symmetrical triangle, things could get climactic).

Meanwhile, the IWM closed 13-cents off of all-time highs today

and the XLF still looking to test previous 2011 highs (note that the XLF has yet to test the Lehman Gap)

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