The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at toddstrade@gmail.com
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.


Thursday, February 14, 2013

Thu. 02_14

today's trade
A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

I'm going to start adding up/down arrows to the 15m in order to reference the setup I'm anticipating on this time frame. 3d criteria at the open.  Instead of adding in the late afternoon I (foolishly?) I was in and out.  Breadth was relatively neutral and OpEx week are my excuses.  Price nailed the 50% Fib projection on the open, a target I was looking (hoping) for in yesterday's short setup :/

As I've mentioned; with 2c-2d I'm looking for 3d criteria on the faster time frame (15m in the charts below) which is what we saw this morning.  The weak open was pretty surprising to me and the price development throughout the day looks a lot like short covering, but looks like it can easily roll over.  The higher time frame (65m) has a slow line that's getting very close to zero, so anticipating this I would be looking for a 2c OR fast line pullback into the down sloping slow line on the 15m 3/10macd (which would read something like 2c to 2(or 4)d to 4c to 4d continuation as the diagram below depicts).
However, a slow line crossing zero often precedes the 20- & 50-MA's to cross.  This can only happen at the very least if price works inside the 20- & 50-MA window.  Otherwise, the Moving Averages have a strong bullish arrangement and will take a lot of bearish momentum to change that in the near term.  So,  we need to see price working at least under $151.75s.   Also keeping in mind that the SPY can correct 1.2% and we would only be at the 20-day Moving Average, something not tested yet this year.

2 comments:

Jay Jay said...

Hi Todd I would like to ask if you could add me to your Blog Roll. I hope your getting some traffic from my site as I have you on my roll. Thanks again for the help. Jay

todd Sohayda said...

I would recommend soliciting the McVerry Report. They do a much better job of traffic and blog rolls than I.
http://mcverryreport.com/