We didn't get any bullish follow-through after the faster time frame (hourly) had a positive fast line change. The '4a' criteria (slow line negative and ticking down with a positive fast line) will always be a suspect entry, if there is no immediate momentum to follow (the momentum is needed to pull the slow line from criteria '4' to '3' and eventually to '1'). A better setup would be for the fast line to turn positive then pull back into a positive slow line before continuing higher.
Trying to get a jump on the potential higher time frame shift we can add the 15-minute chart into the mix (below, right).
We had an entry in the morning, but rejection at resistance was evident and eventually a fast line/slow line cross was a warning sign for potential time/price correction (also note bearish moving averages). Going into the afternoon we had an either/or scenario (price could have gone either way) take place into FOMC minutes at 1:00pm CT but the selling trigger ended up giving a measured move.
Now, if looking for a long entry we can start by waiting for the 15-min time frame to develop more of a bullish criteria (FL > SL with a slow line positive and closer to the zero-line, maybe a 3d to 3a to 1a, similar to what we saw late afternoon yesterday and early this morning).
The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at email@example.com
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.