The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.

Friday, February 7, 2014


Trend is certainly still Up in the weekly charts across all sector ETF's.
With a number of reverse (buy) divergences setting up it all comes down to how enthusiastic buyers are on the next up swing.
XLB - After pulling off of all-time highs (something which could be a realistic expectation as opposed to just plowing through it) it will be telling how this sector reacts from here.  Building a base before breaking out higher could spell out the potential for a larger, longer-term move.  Anything below this week's low would get hairy (which is the case for most sectors at this point).
 XLE - Similarly pulled away from all-time highs.  $86 above is resistance to watch
 XLF - trend intact, otherwise watching the $21.75 resistance area
 XLI - trend intact, otherwise watching the $51.25 resistance area
 XLK - trend intact (broken record) $34.25 below $25.50 above
 XLP - Lower momentum lows on higher price lows are a "buy divergence" but it's important to see the buying reaction which follows.  In other words, is the new (stronger) momentum low the start of something bigger that will be eagerly sold on a move higher?
XLU - continues to coil
 XLV - trend very much intact.  The fast line being greater than the slow line can cause a choppy environment while price bounces between resistance and support (provided there isn't a wildly strong breakout range bar).
 XLY - same as the rest, trend intact and critical to see the buying appetite from here.
 IYT - after breaking out of a cycling trend channel perhaps this sector is setting up another (higher) cycling trend channel (may entertain a right shoulder going forward)
 SPY - trend is up, price within a stable channel
 QQQ - the fast line on this weekly 3/10macd didn't even turn negative.
 DIA - had a steep pullback but support managed to hold.  Reverse divergence, guage strength on the move higher
 IWM - channel intact
TLT - though price made a higher high, it's failure at that pivot is still a reverse (sell) divergence in my eye.  Important to see how much buying interest there is on a pullback lower.

So, while the trends are still intact, these are WEEKLY charts, so a continuation of the trend may not be immediate (though V-bottoms are in vogue in these markets).  There are some significant resistance points overhead to keep an eye on in order to guage selling, but there is nothing overly bearish at this point.
Being that the 3/10macd fast line is less than the slow line across the board in these sectors there can be potential for a 2b-criteria short setup (probably wouldn't be for another 4-weeks or so if it were to set up).  The funny thing with that type of criteria is price could still make a higher high but the momentum would be starkly divergent, but ideally the setup would highlight a lower high.

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