The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

End of Month

SPY - The Daily and the hourly both ticked up to trigger a long entry.  These can be sketchy and have potential to roll over.  So if there is no momentum follow-through tomorrow I would look to get out.


IWM - I like the 3d criteria setup on the hourly, but again, if there is a lack of follow-through momentum tomorrow I would be cautious.


XLF - seems like it is at an inflection point


Monday, April 28, 2014

Gold Potential

The weekly (below, left) holding 1280 off of a double-bottom, while the daily is trying to regain 1305 off of a double-bottom.
The daily may end up triggering a buy entry with the fast line turning positive (tomorrow?).

While looking at the continuous 4H it may be a better idea to watch this time frame for when the 3/10macd orients back to bullish (FL>SL), 1305 being a key resistance.


Some whippy behavior in the market today.
SPY - may be setting up a long entry for tomorrow (65m fast line going green).

DIA - similar story as SPY

QQQ - stopped-out short entry today (unless you kept a stop above the pivot high i suppose)

IWM - similar set-up to the QQQ but a but less of a loss (due to the 65min fast line ticking up while the higher time frame has a FL<SL orientation).

IYT - the reason for not shorting this set-up mostly has to do with the previous strength.

XLF - the one short that worked!

 4H ES - quite a swift reversal bar.  This is what can happen when you short a 4c-4d continuation (on the faster "trigger" time frame) when the FL > SL.

 EURUSD - stuck in a crummy range, leading to more stop-outs.  Notice how the traded time frame 3/10macd (top indicator) kind of goes flat, as compared to previous, larger, momentum readings.  Indicative of an environment that can prove difficult with these setups and within such a tight range.

Saturday, April 26, 2014

Fast Line < Slow Line

     The following weekly charts have two indicators in the subset.  The top is meant to reflect a 3/10macd as it would appear on a chart which is 3 times "slower" (so, approximately 3-weeks).  The bottom indicator is the 3/10macd for the weekly time frame.  The upper 3/10macd then is the "traded" time frame, while the lower 3/10macd is the "trigger" time frame.
      A typical warning sign for long positions, and possible impending corrections, comes in an environment where the traded time frame 3/10macd Fast Line goes below (is less than) the Slow Line.  So, looking at a chart of the SPY I've highlighted instances where this has occurred.
The thing is, this Fast Line/Slow Line cross on the traded time frame comes late, both in crossing below and crossing back above.  That is what the "trigger" indicator is for, as a way to anticipate this occurrence.
So, when the "traded" time frame shows a FL < SL you can draw a box (Darvas?) around the range and wait for a breakout, or build some sort of similar strategy that you prefer.

This isn't to say that when the FL < SL that price can't go higher, because it CAN.  If nothing else it should/could just serve as a conditional warning for more stringent risk control allowances.
Here in XLF the fast line has been less than the slow line on the "traded" time frame for 35 weeks now and is up approximately 4.5% since breaking out of a range to higher highs.  As an aside, that 4.5% has been a choppy ride.
The anticipated trades were for the Fast Line on the "traded" (higher) time frame to tick back up (i.e. fast line moving down to fast line moving back up).  You can't know whether this fast line moving back up will have anough momentum to create the condition where the fast line goes back over the slow line, but it's a trade you have to consider.  In the chart of XLF above, the "trigger" time frame (weekly) shows a bullish orientation of the 3/10macd right up until the big red bar that happened in January.  Overall, this trade orientation may have resulted in a scratch trade after keeping your money in it for 15-weeks.  So, though price went higher with a FL < SL it has behaved in a sloppy (choppy) manner.

So, with that in mind, here are the rest of the weekly majors with their higher "traded" indicators :




Again, the Fast Line crossing below the slow line indicates a bearish/corrective warning.  Anticipating the potential for the fast and slow line to either become bearish OR re-orient in a bullish position is what you have to look to trade (by use of the trigger element).

Friday, April 25, 2014


A good many of the "triggers" for these short setups took place in Thursday's session.
SPY- you just had to roll the dice

DIA - same as SPY


QQQ - triggered today, still a distance from initial target
XLF - Should have shorted yesterday afternoon


Thursday, April 24, 2014

Thu. 04_24

Nothing much to go by.  Either we break out above or probe lower.  The over/under is fairly clear.

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Tue. 04_22

SPY- retracing most of the previous sell-off and making a higher pivot high.  

DIA - coming $0.10 shy of it's primary target.  We still continue to base under the $164.79 (2014 Open) and $165.47 (2013 Closing price).

QQQ- resisting at the previous pivot high

 IWM - so far making a lower high, but that could change by week's end.

XLF - mustered up enough strength to close above the 20-day MA.

IYT - made a new all-time high today, strength continues to show up in this index.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014


Coming off of the previous post, most issues achieved primary target, except for IWM lagging.  DIA and IYT strong

Tue 04_15

Finally a worthwhile long setup in the majors.
Fairly wide targets (based on the average), so it becomes discretionary as to whether you let it play out, scratch at b/e, or take no less than half of the target.  Most are falling slightly shy of their initial targets within the first hour.

Saturday, April 12, 2014


DIA - $DJIA closed just above 16k on the week.  Difficult to tell what it may do from here.  Either way, the daily isn't quite set up to buy at this point.
IWM - may be setting up a reverse (buy) divergence on the weekly.  Would be waiting for the daily FL>SL to take place
QQQ - Rounding top pattern with approximately a $7 measured move.  Weekly downside momentum being the strongest since November 2012.  Would like to see a daily 3d setup before buying.

IBB - registering the strongest negative momentum ever.  While the trend is still intact, these momentum pushes can be difficult to completely recover from.  Though the daily is showing signs of waning momentum.  The fast line turning positive may be worth trying to buy.